THSCC Forums

Considering Ivan is tracking slower than predicted, we stand a good chance of seeing some serious H2O this weekend. At what point do we consider canceling an event or do we just press on regardless of the weather? If we cancel, do we have a makeup date?

Just curious....

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Rodney

'08 Bullitt mustang, CAM 7
Autox VP '09-'10, President '11-'12, interim President 2nd half of ‘14
proud recipient of the Bowie Grey service award '12
Now just a guy driving a mustang....

Yeah, I'm kinda wondering about this - rain I don't mind, but if the winds are bad enough to blow all the cones off the course...

Hey Rodney -

We (the THSCC staff) are talking about what our "policy" should be now. I'll let everyone know.

I expect that we will say something like, "If there is a tropica storm warning for Sanford on Saturday as of Friday at noon it's cancelled" or something like that.

In general though, if it's just going to rain all day, we're fine. We will shut down for lightning. Rain and high wind just makes it not worth it to have an event. But we need to make sure we have an easily understood policy so there won't be any last minute guessing.

My bet is that we're still on for Saturday though

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

It's really, err, "interesting" doing an event in high winds. Chris and I did an Evo school in DC where it was 40F all day (or lower) and the winds were constant at 25MPH and gusting to 45MPH at times. We watched the entire course blow over at least three times.

In the Phase 2 there's a feature where you have a pretty long pull into a *tight* left hand 90 degree corner that has an exit chute that's also narrow. I flew up the hill and started to brake, all the time watching my track out cone and having the apex in my periphery. Next thing I know I'm off the brakes, on the brakes, turning a little more, and slide the car around the corner. My instructor, Sam Strano, says "what the hell was that???" I say "uh, I'm not really sure...I've done that feature about a dozen times now with no trouble, but something felt very strange that time." We shake it off and not worry about it and move on. Little later when I'm out of the car and changing workers the guy who was working that corner comes up to me and says "hey, what was it like driving through there and having your apex cone and all the cones around it shift about three feet inside?" WHAT? Apparently they had all just remained upright but slid inward relative to each other several feet due to wind. All *while* I was braking for the turn.

Talk about adding a new element to autocross. I don't recommend running events if the wind is gonna be that bad. It just isn't worth it.


--Donnie

Well we're still trying to "quantify" the process, but it will probably go something like this: If, on Thursday at noon, Sanford is contained in some kind of "danger zone" forecast for Saturday as defined by the NWS, the whole weekend is cancelled.

Before Thursday is too soon to tell, and after Thursday is too late to change our mind. So if on Thursday there aren't any warnings or if the forecast for the storm in our area is downgraded to a depression or less (I think our threshold is <20 MPH winds), then we're probably on.

We're looking into options if we have to cancel. Right now I cannot forsee an option to just postpone to Sunday, since we will need to make a decision early - and we can't exactly do setup on Saturday if conditions exist that would cause the event to be cancelled.

These are just some initial thoughts. I'll be back later with specifics.

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

Sanford is STILL SCHEDULED AS PLANNED.

We're still going to monitor the situation. If the storm switches track and a high wind advisory is issued then we may have to cancel later. There is only a very small chance of this happening.

Current forecasts show 10MPH winds and occasional rain bands on Saturday.

I will post another update later tonight, and I will send an email to all participants this evening to confirm. Right now I suggest than anyone who doesn't own good raingear go stock up

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

Its looking worse, as now the projected path takes it right over Sanford;

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91 Jetta GLI STS/DSP 111
85 Porsche 944 ASP 11
http://www.blackforestindustries.com

The storm projection has shifted east and the forecast has worsened. Our "breaking point" has been a forecast flood watch and/or winds over 20 MPH, and now both are forecast for both days - in addition to 4-6 inches of rain.

If the forecast remains the same or worsens, we're going to cancel. Some of our equipment just won't work with 20-30 mph wind gusts and heavy downpouring rain.

I hate to make these calls so last-minute, but stay tuned. We'll make a final decision tomorrow AM.

Thanks,
Mike, Phil, Rob, (and Adam)

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

Buttonhook right? WTF?

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Has no responsibility whatsoever.

Please refer all comments to the applicable deity whom you believes controls the weather.

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

I'm no meterologist, but this reversal of direction of this system seems highy unlikely and since the NWS has now removed this projected path from their website, I think they probably now agree. Looking at the various radars, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict this system will be in PA tomorow and it will be mostly sunny and beautiful here. Especially now that we have cancelled the auto-x.

I don't care how nice it ends up being tomorrow, I don't think it would have been worth it to try to set the event up today. Sanford has the following severe weather advisories in effect this afternoon:

Special Weather Statement
Tornado Watch
Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Admittedly, consideration of setup day (today's) conditions were included in the decision to cancel.

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Mike Whitney
whit32@gmail.com, 919-454-5445
V10, V8, V8t, I6, I6, V6, F4t, I4, I4, I4, I4, I2, 1, 1

They didn't really remove it. It's archived. That was their last prediction before it became a depression so it is no longer a concern to them.

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In need of car.

So, hey - now that we'll all be missing out on the autox tomorrow, how 'bout some people sign up for the rallyx that's happening next weekend? I guarantee you it will make you forget all about missing the autox!!!

Oh amen to that! Since Rob asked me to help with setup today I'm glad we're cancelling. We would have had all the stuff unloaded from the bus right about now and cones laid out. Right when the sky opened up and rearranged everything that was done. Better safe than sorry. The thought of being a drowned rat for 2 days in a row is not appealing. Even if it is racing...

Graham

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http://www.greywinds.com