Nationals Results from Thursday - Tarheelers in the Trophies

JamesShort · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:25 pm

Steven Carter wrote:

PAX is not based on hypothetical perfect performance, at least as I understand it. It is an accumulation of data from multiple self-selected drivers (who assume they are the best and therefore travel and perform on a national circuit. This is a somewhat flawed sampling process, as some National drivers are not very good, and many local drivers could do very well if they chose to go National. But, it's the best tool available at this point.) across multiple venues in multiple weather scenarios. PAX is then derived from statistical analysis of those results, however flawed that empirical evidence may be. So, just like a golfer with an 18 handicap can on occasion break 80, so too an STS car on occasion can be faster than an STR-mobile. However, the preponderance of data, as well as the general trend, supports STR being faster than STS. For this year's Nationals, the average time for STS was 142.671, median was 140.8. For STR, the mean was 139.607 and median 139.053.

I would not build an STR Miata based on your assumptions about the championship-winning STS and this year's finals results. I would also not rush out and buy a CR for STR. But, I bet Charlie will still sell you his NB :wink:

edit: HOWEVER, I think there is a strong $/fun "value" argument that can be made which supports building an STS car over an STR.

In re: "perfect PAX pace." As you state earlier, STR is still in development, so one cannot say if 2 seconds is a lot to overcome as the theoretical "perfect prep" STR car has not yet been achieved.

Lame, I knew the PAX determination process was flawed....heavily. But what you describe sounds insane

.

Oh well, dumb old me should know that a single data point rarely means much

. Maybe I'm trying to convince myself that if I buy Ram's car or Charlie's car, that I could beat Zach or Marcus in STR

.

Steven Carter · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:35 pm

JamesShort wrote:

Lame, I knew the PAX determination process was flawed....heavily. But what you describe sounds insane

.

Oh well, dumb old me should know that a single data point rarely means much

. Maybe I'm trying to convince myself that if I buy Ram's car or Charlies car, that I could beat Zach or Marcus in STR

.

Agreed. I make a lot inferences about how PAX is determined, so I could be way offbase. But there are just so many variables, and drivers are prone to so many external (and internal) forces it remains the best of a flawed process.

Regardless, you should totally build Charlie's 99 NB and get into STR. :thumbsup:

JamesMilko · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:46 pm

Steven Carter wrote:

Regardless, you should totally build Charlie's 99 NB and continue in CSP. :thumbsup:

Fixed

Donnie Barnes · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:18 pm

Steven, there are no "self selected" drivers used for PAX. It's one dude who sifts through results from all over. He culls out the ones with weird weather, and then does some more noise reduction. Sometimes there still isn't quite enough good data to get it spot on, but in general, it's pretty well done all things considered.

The most significant thing to me is that STR isn't anywhere NEAR as baked as STS. That, and the fact that STR is stuck with much heavier cars, means they're going to be closer right now. And maybe for the long term, since just going with a bigger tire doesn't always completely make up for weight.

--Donnie

Steven Carter · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:05 pm

Donnie,

Much of what Rick Ruth does to determine PAX is.not public but it *appears* as though a lot of weight is placed on events on National Tour and ProSolo schedules. I used "self selected" to mean that one driver is not picked to join the tour, but rather decides for him/herself that they are good enough for that level of competition. Mr Ruth also pulls data from other regions, although he does not list any of the NC regions. I don't mean to disparage his method-- just that there remains sampling bias. That bias seems very difficult to overcome, but I appreciate his efforts in doing so. I think he gets it pretty close to right...i certainly don't mean to say I could do better.

JenniferBedell · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:25 pm

Thanks to everyone for the words of encouragement! Eric, Chris, Gwen, Jim, David, and Keith were amazing mentors, and I am shocked by how much I learned in six short runs. :shock:

I wish I had gotten to hang around to watch everyone else run: I bet it was a riot. Congrats to all!

Steven Carter wrote:

Based on how our racers are faring this year, I can come up with a not-too-short list of THSCC'ers who can easily hold their own at Nats. You know who you are. :cheer:

It is my goal for 2012 to chastise you, embarass you and/or bribe you into attending Nationals next year--or at least make it to Dixie, Atlanta or DC/NJ. :twisted:

Now that you've generously volunteered to be "THSCC National Team Coordinator," don't forget to put yourself on the recruitment list! :thumbsup:

JasonWatts · **Posted:** Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:54 pm

JamesShort wrote:

Maybe I'm trying to convince myself that if I buy Ram's car or Charlie's car, that I could beat Zach or Marcus in STR

.

You can. I think Dustin came pretty close to it after just hopping into Ram's car last year. Prep the car more (9 in wheels, better susp, weight savings) and I bet Ram's car will be even more competitive in our local STR.

Matt McGrain · **Posted:** Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:49 am

If anyone's interested, here's the PAX breakdown of 1106 timed entries:

http://www.sccaforums.com/forums/forumi ... cope/posts

Les Davis · **Joined:** Fri Aug 29, 2003 2:04 pm **Posts:** 2059

Steven Carter wrote:

PAX SUX.

I couldn't agree more.

jeremy gast · **Posted:** Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:35 pm

cant we all

Les Davis wrote:

Steven Carter wrote:

PAX SUX.

I couldn't agree more.

Steven Carter · **Posted:** Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:56 pm

Les Davis wrote:

Steven Carter wrote:

PAX SUX.

I couldn't agree more.

I see what you did there..... :lol:

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