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 Post subject: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:47 am 
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This is an interesting look at features that keep getting added to google maps:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/google-map-foreclosures/

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 Post subject: Re: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:16 pm 
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You're just jealous

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Chuck Branscomb wrote:
This is an interesting look at features that keep getting added to google maps:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/google-map-foreclosures/


So much for the home equity loan that many would have used to pay for the 1M. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:23 pm 
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DickRasmussen wrote:
Chuck Branscomb wrote:
This is an interesting look at features that keep getting added to google maps:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/google-map-foreclosures/


So much for the home equity loan that many would have used to pay for the 1M. :lol:


No kidding. Hopefully that abhorrent behavior is gone for good. Then again, we do have our gov't backing and encouraging home loans with essentially no money down again. Sigh...

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 Post subject: Re: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:32 pm 
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Chuck Branscomb wrote:
DickRasmussen wrote:
Chuck Branscomb wrote:
This is an interesting look at features that keep getting added to google maps:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/google-map-foreclosures/


So much for the home equity loan that many would have used to pay for the 1M. :lol:


No kidding. Hopefully that abhorrent behavior is gone for good. Then again, we do have our gov't backing and encouraging home loans with essentially no money down again. Sigh...



sweet... now I can go buy a home that is 3 times what I can afford... 3 cheers for another messed up economy.

on a serious note, can you link me something to what you are refering to?


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 Post subject: Re: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:45 pm 
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JasonWatts wrote:
sweet... now I can go buy a home that is 3 times what I can afford... 3 cheers for another messed up economy.

on a serious note, can you link me something to what you are refering to?


One example is FHA loans where the max down payment is 3.5%

http://www.fha-home-loans.com/

Another is the HAMP program where they do a principle write-down and then a refi with loan to value of 97.75%. Even after the giveaway of equity to "qualified" homeowners, the redefault rate is extremely high (65%+).

Of course with the Federal Reserve Bank holding $1.5 trillion in MBS' that they absolutely can't ever sell (especially since many of them have legal errors in their structure and will likely result in put-backs, it's a mess), the taxpayers are on the hook for more than they realize...sort of a nice off-balance sheet of the "gov't" financing.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 2:17 pm 
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Just a follow-up to above post:
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?GDP#category=GDP&chart=FlowFundsREEquityQ32010.jpg

"Note: something less than one-third of households have no mortgage debt. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 38.8% equity."

Also, US home values in net are expected to show a drop 70% more in 2010 than they did in 2009 (i.e. fell $1.7 trillion in 2010 versus falling $1 trillion in 2009). http://www.zillow.com/blog/early-2010-housing-stabilization-fizzles-u-s-homes-set-to-lose-1-7-trillion-this-year/2010/12/09/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+ZillowBlog+%28Zillow+Blog%29

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Last edited by Chuck Branscomb on Thu Dec 09, 2010 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Google Map Tricks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 2:22 pm 
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You're just jealous

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Chuck Branscomb wrote:
JasonWatts wrote:
sweet... now I can go buy a home that is 3 times what I can afford... 3 cheers for another messed up economy.

on a serious note, can you link me something to what you are refering to?


One example is FHA loans where the max down payment is 3.5%

http://www.fha-home-loans.com/

Another is the HAMP program where they do a principle write-down and then a refi with loan to value of 97.75%. Even after the giveaway of equity to "qualified" homeowners, the redefault rate is extremely high (65%+).

Of course with the Federal Reserve Bank holding $1.5 trillion in MBS' that they absolutely can't ever sell (especially since many of them have legal errors in their structure and will likely result in put-backs, it's a mess), the taxpayers are on the hook for more than they realize...sort of a nice off-balance sheet of the "gov't" financing.


Chuck,

Without getting into "how" the combination of "do gooders" and "greedy capitalists" got us into this situation :( , what do you see as what "should" have been done starting in 2007 or so when the mess became apparent? :? Or better yet from now on now that repubs and conservative dems (i.e. "capitalists") are controlling congress for a couple years at least?

What would you change in the future . . . and how in a relatively free economy would you "prevent" capitalists from figuring out ways to pass on the default risks to "others" again without "excessive" regulation in order to make more money in the short term?

Dick (no answers, just honest questions)

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 2:53 pm 
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Dick,

It was long before 2007 when many saw this coming. It started for me in 2002 when I was certain FNM was doomed and probably the best short out there. Of course that was before it REALLY got crazy and housing market doubled in some places. :)

If people would just trade price action and not "news", none of this crap would surprise them; but that's not how the world works.

Seriously, at this point, I don't think we as a country get out of this mess without experiencing serious and major pain. One of the primary reasons we ended up with the economic top in 2007 was that we as a world didn't want to experience economic pain. This is NOT a USA only problem. Look at Greece, Ireland and Portugal right now for example -- if the ECB hadn't stepped in last week to buy their sovereign debt, they would be busted, bankrupt. They may still be since as of right now, the ECB is the only buyer in those markets. How did they get to that point? Just like the US and many of our states, they spent and spent and spent, ever increasing their sovereign spending, selling more and more debt, hoping to never have to pay the piper. As soon as there was any pullback in ever increasing world-wide credit and tax base growth, the tide went out, and they were seen swimming naked.

The insanity was/is world-wide. That is the thing imo that Americans, "in general" have little concept and understanding. They listen to the mass media sound bites of one party spouting their talking points about the other party, many actually believe a lot of that crap, and then cement their beliefs by such drivel. We as a county have a huge majority of totally, economically "challenged" people that can't understand basic finance much less try to figure out what the hell is an MBS and why their Fed owns over $1.5T of the things. We actually believe we are the center of the universe and whatever the other party is in charge we didn't vote for is the evil doer, but "my party" is best. Eventually, this too will change after the pain threshold gets high enough.

Our "Federal Reserve" along with other world's central banks (developed countries) got the fine tuning down pat for almost 3 decades. They actually think they can control the economic outcome. People believe them still even after their repeated and continual disastrous monetary policy, especially during the 2001 to 2004 timeframe where they stocked and poured gasoline on a credit bubble bigger than anything in the history of the world.

That credit bubble has to deflate. Greece sold the landing rights to Athens airport back in 2002, and used the payoff to meet then current spending. I saw that at the time as one scary indicator of where things were at. It is just one of thousand of examples of the idiocy, world-wide, during that massive credit bubble peak.

Right now our gov't, especially the Fed, is pumping billions of dollars (Fed is monetizing debt, printing money) into that credit bubble deflation. I hope I'm wrong about the end point since they have no exit strategy. Short rates have been essentially 0% for two years now with no end in sight. The Fed now has over $3T in crap it has bought, and it has just recently passed China as the number one holder of US Treasury debt. Our own Federal Reserve holds the most of our own debt, and they're buying more and more like they've done essentially every day the past 3+ weeks with more POMO to come; see: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

It doesn't appear the structural problems are going to be solved until we as a country are in trouble (i.e. much more "trouble" than we are in the past couple of years). The EU has a number of countries trying to solve their structural problems actually, so in a sense, some of them are trying to do the right thing (even if the Euro fails along the way, or member countries have to drop out -- that part is almost a guarantee).

We're not solving any significant structural problem, and we won't. It's always easier to kick the can down the road. Nobody will accept the truth. Anybody who actually tries to get at the base of our structural problems and do what is necessary will be immediately castigated and voted out or impeached. See how much of an optimist I am? :)

Instead we as a country are trying as hard as possible to reinflate that bubble. The "stimulus" was a total waste of our country's future funds. Since it didn't work out at all like it was "supposed' to, the excuse is of course made in hindsight with fantasies about what would have happened without it. The point is to look at what could have happened with a proper program as opposed to a pork-filled handout to supporters one.

Stuff I was screaming should have been done two years ago -- like payroll tax holiday -- is only now being considered. This perfectly highlights what I mean about how nothing will be "fixed" until we are experiencing a large level of pain. I hope I'm wrong. I pray everything about that view is dead wrong.

One of the things I literally wake up at night worrying about is how the average maturity of our Treasury debt is 6-7 years. This should scare the ever-living-crap out of each and every citizen. It is a perfect doomsday fuse that is lit. We're going to be really lucky to be able to put that thing out imo.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 3:03 pm 
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I guess I didn't answer your question.

Quote:
What would you change in the future . . . and how in a relatively free economy would you "prevent" capitalists from figuring out ways to pass on the default risks to "others" again without "excessive" regulation in order to make more money in the short term?


You make them experience pain. You do not bail them out. You let structured bankruptcies occur that zero out shareholder value, give a big haircut to credit (bond) holders, and you fire ALL of the senior management of the company. This is what should have been done with each and every case for Back of America, Merrill Lynch, Citi, etc, etc.

You make sure that nobody is rewarded for failing.

Our country did the exact opposite.

We even paid off creditors, counterparties, at par value! Unreal. Our government, using our money, paid off counterparties to derivative deals of AIG, Merrill, Citi, every big bank, at par value. Billions of those dollars went to foreign banks. Insanity imo.

Now we've created this "nobody can fail" moral hazard out into our future. Sort of like how not keeping score at kid's soccer game so nobody will feel upset.

See, you shouldn't get me started. It's like kicking the kickstarter on a KTM 500 two-stroke motox bike. :D

Oh, and as far as unemployment payments -- instead of paying people for two years not to be employed, we should use a method like Germany that pays employers a portion of the employee's salary during downturns so few ever get laid off. One problem with that is we had many "industries" whose business model was 100% tied to that largest credit bubble in the world's history. Germany has actually a lot of manufacturing -- that thing we used to do one time here and seems to be a fading fact. That, by the way, is something else that I wake up at night thinking about.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 3:21 pm 
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I spent two hours talking to a friend yesterday about this. If I dwell on it I end up looking at cheap property in the mountains that I can pay cash for and grow my own food. Open a little store and sell to folks on welfare.

When I was a kid in the 60's everybody lived in a 1200 sq ft house and the houses from the 1900's that wer 3200 sq ft were cut up into apartments because nobody could afford to live in them. I would not be surprised to see that again.

I don't know if we will ever get back to where we were unless we become a manufactureing country again.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 3:54 pm 
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Just had this link pass by me, and it is so appropriate to this thread, this guy sums up the outcome, but this is definitely NSFW -- don't play this without headphones or with others around, lol. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/irishman-speaks-his-mind

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:30 pm 
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You're just jealous

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Chuck Branscomb wrote:
Just had this link pass by me, and it is so appropriate to this thread, this guy sums up the outcome, but this is definitely NSFW -- don't play this without headphones or with others around, lol. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/irishman-speaks-his-mind


Outstanding. I was home in a room by myself when I played it. Not at all what I expected and very close to my view (without the salty language).

Thanks for all the other comments and information . . . discouraging though it is.

At my age my primary options (other than forgetting nice fast cars in retirement) are to keep working after full SS age until I break :cry: or retire in a few years and enjoy life until I go broke. :wink: :lol:

Dick

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:34 pm 
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You're just jealous

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clinehall wrote:
If I dwell on it I end up looking at cheap property in the mountains that I can pay cash for and grow my own food. Open a little store and sell to folks on welfare.


Can you grow enough food to live on in the mountains? Would welfare payments continue if things are so in order to fund your store customers? You might be better off bartering for moonshine. :wink:

Who will guard your crops at night? :cry:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:39 pm 
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DickRasmussen wrote:
Chuck Branscomb wrote:
Just had this link pass by me, and it is so appropriate to this thread, this guy sums up the outcome, but this is definitely NSFW -- don't play this without headphones or with others around, lol. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/irishman-speaks-his-mind


Outstanding. I was home in a room by myself when I played it. Not at all what I expected and very close to my view (without the salty language).

Thanks for all the other comments and information . . . discouraging though it is.

At my age my primary options (other than forgetting nice fast cars in retirement) are to keep working after full SS age until I break :cry: or retire in a few years and enjoy life until I go broke. :wink: :lol:

Dick
Well at least you'll have SS ;). I am 100% planning on not having any income from SS at the rate shit is going now :).

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:35 pm 
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You're just jealous

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JamesShort wrote:
Well at least you'll have SS ;). I am 100% planning on not having any income from SS at the rate shit is going now :).


James,

If it "helps" that is what "we" all thought and said 30 or 40 years ago. So you young folks keep working and paying for my SS like I did (and still do) for my parent's SS. :lol: :lol: Also really try hard to keep the economy going. :wink:

Seriously though, will the pending retirement of the boomer generation free up enough jobs to make openings for the kids who are getting out of HS and college if the economy doesn't fall totally apart?

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